The 2018 Market Basket Survey says there will be a nearly 18 percent price increase for the average Thanksgiving Day dinner over last year's meal for St. Lawrence County residents and those across the state.

The average total price this year, which includes a 16-pound turkey, is $54.53. This is a $9.79 increase over last year’s survey of $44.74, much of that attributed to higher turkey prices.

Turkey prices are about $1.86 per pound in New York State, up 28% on average in this informal survey compared to 2017. Prices found by shoppers in the survey ranged from $1.48/lb. to $2.49/lb. This price increase is steeper than the national numbers which saw wholesale turkey prices remain stable over last year’s number, coming in at $1.36/lb. The higher price may be attributed to the timing of New York’s survey compared to those in other states. As we moved closer to Thanksgiving, turkey prices have been dropping, reflecting the large supply of turkeys in the country.

The New York numbers did show price decreases from the previous year in other categories including for a gallon of milk, fresh carrots, cranberries and Libby’s Pumpkin Pie Mix. We have seen a rebound in pumpkin supply following a low three years ago. In addition, milk prices have remained low throughout 2018, part of a four year down cycle.

New to this year’s survey was the average price for a four-pound ham, five-pound bag of russet potatoes and a package of frozen green beans. This reflects more diversity in traditional Thanksgiving meals and will be included going forward in the annual New York Farm Bureau Market Basket Survey.

Despite the overall price increase in this year’s survey, the meal remains affordable with a price point of little more than five dollars per person for a 10-person meal. The affordability of a classic Thanksgiving meal demonstrates that although farmers and ranchers are struggling with challenging commodity prices, consumers ultimately benefit from lower retail prices.

New York Farm Bureau’s volunteer shoppers sampled prices in different regions of the state trying to get the best prices available, but they do not use promotional coupons or special deals such as “buy one-get one free.” The shopping list includes 15 Thanksgiving food items ranging from turkey and rolls to stuffing and celery to pumpkin pie mix, enough to feed 10 people around the dinner table. The 2018 Thanksgiving survey displayed considerable price variation across the state as well as within districts. No district had the highest or lowest in every category.

The best advice is to compare prices to save money. The numbers below reflect the overall average of the volunteer shoppers.